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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward script. It frequently serves as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence receives the award. In reality, it sparks an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or simply the most shocking surprise.

But this year's competition is profoundly different. The group of candidates is unusually talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with recent division winners falling away and recent also-rans rising together. Under an ordinary year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in such a wild and fun season, he's facing several other elite candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent performance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to spin big plays from broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical season, he would be the overwhelming choice. But the current isn't a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the off-field stuff, which was not a guarantee after his early public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason setback had the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller might have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him just one place ahead of peers.

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